April proved to be a tumultuous month for global markets, dominated by President Trump’s controversial tariff announcements and the ensuing volatility that rattled investors. In this month’s investment summary, Chief Investment Officer, Jeff Brummette, unpacks the dramatic shifts in equities, bonds, and alternative assets, providing context for the sharp swings triggered by Trump’s proposed “reciprocal tariffs” and their sudden delay. With markets reacting to both political unpredictability and macroeconomic pressures, this review offers a timely perspective on emerging global opportunities and the potential path forward amid rising fears of recession and trade uncertainty.
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The month of April was dominated by President Donald Trump and his tariffs, nothing else really mattered. Bond and equity markets experienced significant volatility as Trump announced his “reciprocal tariffs” on April 2 (dubbed “Liberation Day” in his own words).
This was followed by a dramatic shift on April 9th, when heightened turbulence in bond and equity markets prompted Trump to announce a ninety-day delay to their implementation.
For further insights, please see out recent note on Trump’s first 100 days in office – click here
U.S. Dollar Index, S&P 500, U.S. 30-Year Treasury
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
The last weeks of March, moving into early April, witnessed a simultaneous decline in the value of the dollar, U.S. equities and U.S. bonds. This market turbulence is what prompted President Trump to pause the implementation of his tariffs. The chart above understates the volatility markets experienced during this period.
A clearer illustration of the markets’ fragility is provided in the chart below. Notice the pronounced spike in volatility on “Liberation Day,” which highlights the intense market reaction during this period.
Volatility’s Post-Liberation Day Liberation
Source: Bloomberg
Trump’s retreat allowed markets to recover, leaving them virtually unchanged for the month. However, the situation was very different in China, where concerns over Trump’s planned 145% tariff on Chinese exports to the U.S. weighed heavily on the market.
European and UK equities continue to outperform other developed market peers, benefiting from the lack of mega-cap technology stocks and a surge in the value of defence stocks. This divergence highlights the relative attractiveness of European and UK equities, which has been reflected in fund flows as asset managers reallocate away from the U.S. in favour of Europe.
Equity Markets
Source: Bloomberg
Fixed Income Markets
Source: Bloomberg
Alternative Investments Markets
Source: Bloomberg
Fixed income markets rallied towards the end of the month, while gold and bitcoin thrived. In contrast, oil fell sharply, reflecting fears of a looming recession.
Despite the market’s turnaround in April, it has still been one of the worst first 100 days for any U.S. President – all self-inflicted.
S&P 500 Change, Inauguration Day through April
Source: FactSet
The key question facing markets is; will there be a recession?
The scale of Trump’s tariffs, even if they do not reach the levels of his delayed reciprocal tariffs, will still act as a significant tax hike for U.S. consumers and businesses, adding pressure to the economy.
U.S. Average Tariff Rate
Source: J.P. Morgan Global Economics
Business and consumer confidence have declined significantly, and unless Trump dramatically changes course, a U.S. economic slowdown – or even a recession – seems increasingly probable.
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Trump’s chaotic policy making is leaving investors overwhelmed and uncertain.
Maximum Trade Uncertainty Hurting Business Investment and Consumer Confidence
Source: Bruce Mehlman’s Age of Disruption Substack
Congress could vote to remove his trade authority but would have to have enough votes (a two-thirds majority) to overcome a Presidential veto of their legislation. Currently, such a majority is unattainable as most Republicans continue to support his policies.
Meanwhile, there are seven ongoing court cases specifically targeting his use of the International Economic Emergency Powers Act of 1977 to impose the tariffs. One or more of these cases will reach the Supreme Court, but not before the summer. This delay means investors and markets will have to endure more volatility, while businesses and consumers contend with higher prices and the potential shortages of many goods.
We expect the U.S. dollar will continue to decline as foreign holders of U.S. assets continue to reduce their exposures. Trump’s actions have rapidly made the U.S. an unattractive ally and trade partner.
Our strategy remains focused on holding fewer U.S. dollar assets and preparing for slower growth in the U.S. and globally. Central banks will respond once growth slows significantly, but a turbulent period may precede their response.
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Hear more from the Oakglen experts
Our investment team continue to provide interesting and informative content to help keep you in the loop on recent global news and market trends. See below for some key highlights from around the world which some of the investment management team have recently covered:
Read more:
- Trump’s Tariff Tantrum
Jeff Brummette, Chief Investment Officer
- Liberation Day: Global Trade Tariffs Announced
Jeff Brummette, Chief Investment Officer
- April 2025 Investment Summary
Jeff Brummette, Chief Investment Officer
You can read other articles from the team on our News & Insights page.
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