As Donald Trump returned to the White House for his second term, expectations among investors and business leaders soared on promises of tax cuts, deregulation, and a revitalised domestic economy. Financial markets initially responded with enthusiasm, rallying on hopes of pro-growth policies. But just 100 days in, that optimism has given way to volatility and growing unease. From chaotic policy rollouts and escalating trade wars to mounting legal challenges and unpredictable rhetoric, Trump’s early actions have rattled markets and raised fresh concerns about the direction of the U.S. economy.
For investors, understanding the implications of this turbulent start is critical to navigating the months ahead. Our Chief Investment Officer, Jeff Brummette, reflects on the last 100 days and how the financial landscape is looking up ahead.
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Expectations were high when Donald Trump took office on January 20, ushering in a wave of optimism around his ambitious agenda. His plans to lower taxes, reduce government regulation, secure the border (including deporting undocumented immigrants) and bringing manufacturing back to the U.S. were all seen as worthy goals that would further bolster the U.S. economy. Global equity markets responded enthusiastically, with January proving to be a strong month for risk assets.
However, his administration’s execution of these policies has been chaotic, contributing to fears of a significant slowdown in U.S. growth – increasing risk of a potential recession both domestically and globally. Meanwhile, Congress is still trying to put together a tax bill that will extend the expiring Trump tax cuts from his first term as President and potentially introduce new ones, all while attempting to avoid exacerbating the already substantial U.S. fiscal deficit. This is no easy task and may well be impossible. The earliest we may see details may be just before the July 4th holiday.
Efforts to reduce regulation have taken a back seat to Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency’s (DOGE) attempts at mass cutting of government employees and plans to close whole departments. While these moves resonate with some of Trump’s base supporters, the broader public is not happy and has taken it out on Elon Musk and Tesla to the point that Musk has vowed to step back and focus more on his businesses.
Notes: Points reflect the difference between the share who said they agreed and the share who said they disagreed. Question wording has been condensed.
Source: Polls by Pew Research Centre, NBC News
Trump’s most notable success has been at the border with Mexico, where illegal crossings have virtually disappeared.
Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy, U.S. Customs and Border Protection
(BofA Global Research)
Trump’s most significant failure – and worst self-inflicted wound – has been his attempt to use tariffs as leverage to force the U.S.’s trading partners into signing new trade deals aimed at reducing the U.S.’s large trade deficit (exceeding $1 trillion per annum). The plan was intended to increase U.S. exports and encourage foreign companies to relocate production to the U.S.
On April 2, a date dubbed as “Liberation Day,” Trump unveiled his “reciprocal tariff” plan, imposing large and, in many instances, absurd levels of tariffs on all of the U.S.’s trading partners. China swiftly responded with counter tariffs, which the U.S. countered with further escalations. This tariff war has escalated to the point where the U.S. is placing 145% tariffs on Chinese imports, while China is placing 125% tariffs on U.S. goods. The financial markets reacted with predictable alarm, as the U.S. dollar weakened, global stocks fell sharply, and longer term bond yields spiked, reflecting growing uncertainty and fears of broader economic repercussions.
S&P 500 Index
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
These dramatic market moves forced Trump to retreat. On April 9, he announced a 90-day suspension on the imposition of his reciprocal tariffs, excluding those already targeting China. Equity markets have gradually recovered most of the April sell off, but the U.S. dollar continues to decline.
Amid the turmoil, Trump also lashed out at U.S. Federal (Fed) Reserve Chairman Powell, labelling him a “major loser” and criticising the Fed’s delayed rate actions. He claimed to be looking into ways to dismiss him though after another market sell-off, he publicly denied he was contemplating removing Powell.
Financial markets remain unsettled with Trump’s policy plans, and recent polls suggest waning public support for his administration’s approach.
Source: G. Elliott Morris
(gelliottmorris.com)
Trump’s tariff initiatives are also facing substantial legal resistance, with over 200 legal challenges currently filed. Among these, are seven lawsuits filed in U.S. District Courts and the Court for International Trade claiming that Trump’s use of the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977 to impose sweeping tariffs across the board is illegal. Legal experts anticipate that one of more of these cases will make it to the Supreme Court.
At a rally in Detroit, Michigan, just last evening, Trump claimed his policies were working, bringing in billions of dollars in revenue and millions of jobs. He attacked Federal Reserve Chair Powell, declaring “I know much more than he does about interest rates,” Trump said. “Believe me.”
While U.S. consumers have yet to feel the pain of higher prices, or product shortages, these effects are looming, as shipments of many goods to the U.S. have come to a halt.
Unless Trump pulls back further from his tariff plans, it is likely we will see more turbulence in financial markets, accompanied by a slowdown in both U.S. and global economic growth. The first 100 days of Trump’s presidency have been tumultuous – let’s see what the next 1,361 days have in store…
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Hear more from the Oakglen experts
Our investment team continue to provide interesting and informative content to help keep you in the loop on recent global news and market trends. See below for some key highlights from around the world which some of the investment management team have recently covered:
Read more:
- Trump’s Tariff Tantrum
Jeff Brummette, Chief Investment Officer
- Liberation Day: Global Trade Tariffs Announced
Jeff Brummette, Chief Investment Officer
- April 2025 Investment Summary
Jeff Brummette, Chief Investment Officer
You can read other articles from the team on our News & Insights page.
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