22.07.24

US Election Update – July 2024

It’s been a historic night in US politics and the updates have been coming in thick and fast. Our Chief Investment Officer, Jeff Brummette, offers some insight into the landscape of this election trail and what this means for the US and wider economy.

 

President Joe Biden has just dropped out of the US Presidential race, abandoning his campaign. After his disastrous debate appearance in June, the polls had been steadily turning against him. Subsequent public events only further exposed the effects of age slowing him down. Senior Democratic leaders, initially in private and later in public, urged he withdraw from the race. They feared that not only would he lose the upcoming election, but his weakness would flow down and impact the House and Senate races, risking a Republican takeover of the Presidency and both Houses of Congress.

  

In contrast, the Republican Party put on a highly organised and seemingly unified convention, officially nominating former President Trump as their Presidential candidate and announcing Senator JD Vance from Ohio, aged 39 years old, as his pick for Vice President. The recent assassination attempt on Trump has seemed to make him more popular and, for a moment at least, a more sympathetic figure.  

With the election a little over 100 days away, the situation remains dynamic.  

President Biden has endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as his replacement, and many other senior Democrats are likely to follow suit. Former President Bill Clinton has already endorsed her. However, her nomination is not guaranteed. At the Democratic National Convention on August 15 in Chicago, all delegates that voted for Biden in the primaries will be free to vote for whoever they wish. They are not bound to President Biden nor to who he recommends. This may well prove to be a messy process, with potential candidates including Governor Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan and Governor Newsom of California, among others. While the situation is fluid, it offers a positive shift for Democrats, as polls indicated Biden was on a path to defeat.  

Despite the successful Republican Convention, former President Trump has not gained traction with the undecided voters (the double haters) who make up as much as 25% of the electorate. His selection of JD Vance appeals mainly to his MAGA (Make America Great Again) supporters and has not attracted new voters. Democrats have a chance to win over the undecided if they choose the right candidate. This could also benefit their performance in the House and Senate races as the negative association with President Biden faced by many democratic candidates will be reduced. 

The election is wide open, and financial markets may find this uncomfortable. Be prepared for more volatility. 

 

Hear more from the Oakglen experts

Our investment team continue to provide topical and informative content for you to gain insights from. Leading the way is our Chief Investment Officer, Jeff Brummette, who has put together a concise investment summary for H1 2024, whilst our UK Managing Director, Dominic Tayler, has provided a series of updates on the UK General Election up to the final results which saw the Labour Party win by a landslide victory.

 

Read more:

 

You can read other articles from the team on our News & Insights page.

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Jeff Brummette
Chief Investment Officer

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