Markets are navigating a new policy inflection point after the Supreme Court of the United States curtailed tariff authority claimed by President Trump, setting off a rapid sequence of trade actions and legal questions with meaningful macro and portfolio implications. While immediate market reaction has been muted, the ruling introduces fresh uncertainty around trade policy, fiscal flows, and sector dispersion that investors cannot ignore. Our Chief Investment Officer, Jeff Brummette, outlines what has changed, what may come next, and why the evolving tariff framework matters for asset allocation and risk positioning.
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On Friday, the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) upheld a lower court ruling that the President does not have authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA 1977) to impose tariffs. This decision impacts the bulk of Trump’s tariffs.
Bulk of Trump’s Second-Term Tariffs Rely on Key Emergency Economic Powers Law
Note: $1.5 trillion figure includes “reciprocal” China tariffs
Source: “Tracking Every Trump Tariff and Its Economic Effect”, Bloomberg News
The Supreme Court did not make a determination on whether the tariffs already collected should be refunded. That question – if refunds are required and how they would be administered – has been referred to the Court of International Trade, which issued the original ruling against the Administration. One should expect protracted litigation over this. The numbers involved are large, given an estimated $175-200 billion has been collected under Trump’s IEEPA tariffs, revenue the government is unlikely to easily give up on.
Both the Trump Administration and financial markets appeared prepared for this ruling. Markets showed little reaction, either to the ruling itself or to President Trump’s highly confrontational press conference response.
Over the weekend, the Administration moved to replace the invalidated IEEPA tariffs by imposing a blanket 15% tariff on all U.S. trading partners, despite President Trump having initially indicating on Friday that a 10% across-the-board tariff would be implemented. The President cited authority under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which permits tariffs of up to 15% for 150 days. Any continuation beyond that period would require additional Congressional approval.
In addition, the Administration is preparing to invoke Sections 201 and 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose additional tariffs targeting specific countries and industries. At the same time, numerous exemptions and carve-outs have been granted under the existing tariffs regime, resulting in realised tariff rates that are materially lower than the headline rates.
U.S. Effective Tariff Rates
Source: Census Bureau, J.P. Morgan
We should expect a scramble as lobbyists and corporate executives rush to limit the impact on their businesses. It is unclear what will happen with existing trade deals, although President Trump insists they remain in force. While the overall level of tariffs is unlikely to rise materially, many individual countries and specific goods may face new or altered tariff rates.
Largely absent in this discussion is what impact tariffs are having on consumers. Tariffs have not lowered prices, and the cost-of-living crisis remains a huge concern amongst voters. A recent study by the New York Federal Reserve Bank argues that more than 90% of tariff costs have been borne by U.S. consumers and importers. White House Chief Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett dismissed the study as “an embarrassment” stating that its authors “should be disciplined”.
President Trump’s approval ratings continue to decline, and it is unlikely that this weekend’s developments will provide any support.
Trump’s Net Approval Rating on the Issues
Source: Silver Bulletin
The price and value of investments and any income that might accrue may fall as well as rise and is not guaranteed. You may not get back the amount of your original investment.
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Hear more from the Oakglen experts
Our investment team continue to provide interesting and informative content to help keep you in the loop on recent global news and market trends. See below for some key highlights from around the world which our Chief Investment Officer has also recently covered:
Read more:
- February 2026 Investment Summary
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- Precious Metals Meltdown: Gold and Silver Prices Fall
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- Spotlight on the United States: Trump Unbound
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You can read other articles from the team on our News & Insights page.
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