29.07.22

July 2022 Investment Summary

For our July 2022 Investment Summary, we take a closer look at the latest news and market trends we are seeing take place this month.

Well, that was a great year we had last month!

Major developed equity markets rallied, in some cases significantly in July, buoyed by what for some was interpreted as a potential ‘pivot’ by the US Federal Reserve – time will tell if June was the bottom for developed market equities.

As we suggested in last month’s letter, it was hard to believe the second-half of the year would be worse than the first. That being said, few, if any, would have expected the NASDAQ finish the month up over 12%, with the S&P 500 right behind rising over 9%. In Europe, the Euro STOXX 50 climbed 4.5% and the FTSE 100 was up 3.5% despite the domestic political drama around the Conservative Party leadership contest. Turning to Asia, whilst the Nikkei 225 had a strong month, rising over 7%, Chinese equities underperformed with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 4.9% and the more domestic focused CSI 300 down 7.6%.

Bear market rallies are hard to predict and as we have just seen can be quite powerful. We can’t point to any particular trigger, but sentiment and positioning was very negative at the end of June and market participants factoring in a potential Federal Reserve (Fed) pivot certainly helped lift risk assets. Given the rise in asset prices, it is likely a lot of trend following funds were forced to cover their short positions as the rally progressed – driving prices higher. The start of the Q2 earnings season has also provided support for equities. Earnings in the US in particular have surprised to the upside, driven by mega-cap technology stocks which are faring a lot better than analysts forecast. However, we would caution that this is likely to compress in Q3 as companies continue to face margin pressure.

Where we think the markets have overacted is in the notion that the Fed is somehow about to pause or scale back their rate hike ambitions. In the most optimistic scenario, the Fed will start cutting rates in 2023! Headline inflation is 9.1% in the US, the unemployment rate is 3.6% and the labour market remains exceptionally tight. Despite two consecutive 75 basis point rate hikes by the Fed, overnight money is only at 2.25%. That is not a level that is going to slow or reverse inflation. The Fed did drop forward guidance which may have prompted some observers to interpret that as a sign that there would no more big hikes are coming. We think that is a mistake. More hikes are coming, and not just from the Fed.

The European Central Bank (ECB) raised rates in July, hiking 50 basis points, which brings rates out of negative territory for the first time since 2014. Inflation in the Eurozone is currently at 8.9%, so they have a way to go for policy rates to make any difference. It’s clear that the ECB is in a tough position, considering Europe’s heavy reliance on Russian energy. The challenge over the coming months is trying to balance the impact of higher energy prices on growth and inflation. Whilst Russia has turned gas supplies to Europe back on, following a period of planned maintenance for the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline, capacity is only running at 20%. The race is now on for Europe to refill gas storage levels to a minimum storage target of 80% or they could be in for a real winter of discontent given the EU imports over 80% of its gas, with Russia providing around 40% of those imports.

Turning to the UK, the Bank of England (BoE) is also in a challenging position as surging energy prices have had a big impact on inflation and activity. It’s worth noting that the UK imports around 30% of its annual energy requirements, with the weak Pound also creating additional inflationary pressures. Throw into the mix the Conservative Party leadership challenge, following PM Johnson’s resignation, which has been shortlisted to Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak – both of whom have not necessarily proposed coherent and thoughtful economic plans – all adds up to a very difficult path ahead for the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee. Not to mention inflation sits uncomfortably high at 9.4%. At the time of writing, markets were pricing in a high likelihood of a 50 basis points increase on 4th August.

It shouldn’t take long for markets to realise that the path ahead is one with a steady course of continued interest rate hikes. We are also seeing many signs of activity slowing in the developed world as Purchasing Managers’ Indices head lower and other measures of retail sales and housing have been showing weakness. Corporate earnings will no doubt be affected by this slowing of growth. China is not helping either as the fallout from their housing bubble bursting is expanding and their stop / start Covid-19 lockdown policies continue to impact growth. We would view the recent rally as an opportunity to further rebalance your portfolio to quality and value. Energy firms have posted record earnings despite the recent drop in oil. We still favour this sector as energy tightness is not going away.

Looking ahead we suspect much of last month’s rally will fade away over time as continued rate hikes and softer earnings impact valuations.

Read more from our Chief Investment Officer Jeff Brummette in our H1 2022 Investment Summary as a half-year review of 2022. Stay tuned for more insights from Oakglen on the hot topics and latest trends in the financial markets. You can also sign up to our mailing list for more regular communications using the section below.

About the author

 

Jeff Brummette
Chief Investment Officer

Disclaimer

This document is distributed by Oakglen Wealth Limited and / or Oakglen Wealth (Jersey) Limited (hereafter “Oakglen”) to you for your information and discussion only. Unless otherwise stated nothing in this document constitutes investment, legal, accounting, real estate, conveyancing, surveying or tax advice, or a representation that any investment is suitable or appropriate to your individual circumstances, or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation to you. It is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument. Any information including facts, opinions or quotations, may be condensed or summarised and is expressed as of the date of writing. The information may change without notice and Oakglen is under no obligation to ensure that such updates are brought to your attention. The price and value of investments and any income that might accrue could fall or rise or fluctuate. The price of shares and income from them may fall as well as rise and is not guaranteed. You may not get back the amount of your original investment. A change in the economic environment, possible changes in the law and other events may cause future performance to deviate from that expressed or implied in this document. Please note that past performance, simulations and forecasts are not a reliable guide to future returns. If an investment is denominated in a currency other than your base currency, changes in the rate of exchange may have an adverse effect on value, price or income. Investing in Packaged Retail and Insurance-based Investment Products (PRIIPs) carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors.

Any information provided by a client and used to produce this document will have been checked by Oakglen for plausibility only and the client notified accordingly of any obvious anomalies. This document and any related recommendations or strategies may not be suitable for you; you should ensure that you fully understand the potential risks and rewards and independently determine that it is suitable for you given your objectives, experience, financial resources and any other relevant circumstances. You should consult with such adviser(s) as you consider necessary to assist you in making these determinations. The opportunities and risks associated with each investment product can be found in the relevant underlying securities prospectus and any other supplementary documents. All documents will be made available at any time upon request.

Oakglen does not advise on the tax consequences of investments, and you are advised to contact a tax adviser should you have any questions in this regard. The levels and basis of taxation are dependent on individual circumstances and are subject to change. This document may relate to investments or services of an entity/person outside the United Kingdom, or to other matters which are not regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, or in respect of which the protections of the Financial Services Compensation Scheme. Further details as to where this may be the case are available on request in respect of this document. Additionally, this document may relate to investments or services of an entity/person outside Jersey, or to other matters which are not regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission, or in respect of which the protections of the Jersey Financial Services Commission for retail clients. Further details as to where this may be the case are available on request in respect of this document.

This document has been prepared from sources Oakglen believes to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and do not accept liability for any loss arising from its use. Oakglen reserves the right to remedy any errors that may be present in this document. Oakglen, its affiliates and / or their employees may have a position or holding, or other material interest or effect transactions in any securities mentioned or options thereon, or other investments related thereto and from time to time may add to or dispose of such investments.

This document is intended only for the person to whom it is issued by Oakglen. It may not be reproduced either in whole, or in part, without our written permission. The distribution of this document and the offer and sale of the investment in certain jurisdictions may be forbidden or restricted by law or regulation. This communication does not constitute the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment or service in any jurisdiction where, or from any person in respect of whom, such a solicitation of an offer is unlawful.

Investments may have no public market or only a restricted secondary market. Where a secondary market exists, it is not possible to predict the price at which investments will trade in the market or whether such market will be liquid or illiquid. As such, for investments not listed or traded on any exchange, pricing information may be more difficult to obtain, and the liquidity of the investments may be adversely affected. A holder may be able to realise value prior to an investment’s maturity date only at a price in an available secondary market. The issuer of the investment may have entered into contracts with third parties to create the indicated returns and/or any applicable capital protection (in part or in full). The investment instrument's retention of value is dependent not only on the development of the value of the underlying asset, but also on the creditworthiness of the Issuer and / or Guarantor (as applicable), which may change over the term of the investment instrument. In the event of default by the issuer and/or Guarantor of the investment, and / or any third party the investment any income derived from such contracts is not guaranteed and you may get back none of, or less than, what was originally invested. Parties other than the Issuer or Guarantor (as appropriate) mentioned in this document (for instance the Lead Manager, Co-structurer, Calculation Agent or Paying Agent) do neither guarantee, repayment of the invested capital nor financial return on the investment product, if nothing is indicated to the contrary. Any capital protection given is usually an inherent part of the product; provided through the use of options, futures or other derivative products. You may have to accept smaller returns on an investment relative to a direct investment in the underlying index, basket, etc. because of the costs involved in providing the capital protection. Such capital protection normally only applies if the investment is held until maturity. The amount of initial capital to be repaid may be geared, which means that a fall in the underlying index or securities may result in a larger reduction in the amount repaid to investors. Alternative investments, derivatives or structured products are complex instruments that typically involve a high degree of risk and are intended for sale only to investors who are capable of understanding and assuming the risks involved. Structured products carry counterparty risk, in that in the event of default by the issuer you may lose some or all of your capital invested even when the product carries capital guarantees. Where this document relates to emerging markets, such investments should be made only by sophisticated investors or experienced professionals, who have independent knowledge of the relevant markets, are able to consider and weigh the various risks presented by such investments and have the financial resources necessary to bear the substantial risk of loss of investment in such investments.

The services described are provided by Oakglen or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Certain products and services may not be available in all locations or to all Oakglen clients.

Data Source: Oakglen Wealth (Jersey) Limited and Oakglen Wealth Limited, otherwise specified.

Oakglen is a registered business name of Oakglen Wealth (Jersey) Limited and Oakglen Wealth Limited.

Oakglen Wealth (Jersey) Limited is regulated in Jersey by the Jersey Financial Services Commission for the conduct of Investment Business and is a limited company with company number 121454, incorporated in Jersey on 7 June 2016. Its business address is 4th Floor, 1 IFC, St Helier, Jersey, JE2 3BX.

Oakglen Wealth Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. The registered address of Oakglen Wealth Limited is 30 Golden Square, London, United Kingdom, W1F 9LD and is registered in England and Wales with number 13182724.

It has come to our attention that certain individuals are falsely claiming to represent Oakglen Wealth Limited, using identity to falsely obtain goods or services from third parties. These fraudsters may be soliciting credit or other financial transactions under our name. We advise that any request for credit or advance payment of goods or services made on behalf of Oakglen Wealth Limited be treated with suspicion unless confirmed directly through the official contact details provided on this website. We strongly encourage you to contact us immediately if you are approached with any such requests. Oakglen Wealth Limited fully rejects any liability for losses, damages, or fraudulent activity that may arise from interactions with fraudsters.

X